A new insight on predicting flight prices (possibly)
You know, it's funny how business travel and leisure travel seem to follow different patterns. Typically, for us Americans, Spring travel starts booking right after Thanksgiving and goes into overdrive after Christmas. Then, Summer travel bookings start shortly after Christmas and peak around spring break and Easter. Memorial day kicks off the holiday travel season, which goes into overdrive around the 4th of July, and then things tend to calm down until Thanksgiving. It's not until a few days after New Year's that things start getting crazy again. I mean, think about it, how often do you finish one vacation and already start dreaming about the next one?
Back in the day, I worked at two travel agencies where I could take a leave of absence from the middle of July all the way to the first week of January if I wanted to (ah, the good old times).
Now, let me tell you about this interesting experience I had. I've been keeping an eye on New Zealand over the holidays because some of my high-end clients are interested in it. The business class tickets have been averaging about $12k each, and those are the cheaper ones from SFO. My clients from Denver and New York are looking at even higher prices!
Air New Zealand is the main carrier, and they are part of the Star Alliance, with United Airlines as their USA partner. After the 4th of July, United experienced a surge in bookings, and that brought down the cost of flights operated by Air New Zealand by about $1500 per ticket. Then, about 8 or 9 days later (depending on how you look at it), Matariki, the Maori New Year, hit in NZ, and Air NZ experienced another booking surge, which dropped the prices of United-operated flights by another $1500. Since then, the prices have stabilized, and business class isn't really booking as much as usual, probably because it's just outrageously expensive. I remember when $10k used to be the cost around Christmas if you waited within 50 days. Crazy, well, remember that before this holiday time, tickets were closer to $12K each. I also want to point out that not every major holiday will do this. I also tried this with Bastille Day and the Fourth of July with Air France, but I didn’t see it there. That’s not surprising as this flight only operates in the summer and the booking horizon for the next high season is too far off. If there are any programming geeks out there who love databases, call me. I have something I’d like to try.
Anyhow.
You may have seen those articles online claiming to have simple tricks for getting cheap tickets, like booking on Tuesdays or using specific websites. But let me tell you, deciding when to book a plane ticket is like gambling at a casino with a sports team. You might have all the facts and make better decisions than most, but in the end, you're up against the house.
For airline tickets, the "house" is the airlines themselves. They use extremely advanced and complex methods to make sure you spend as much money as possible. After all, airlines are businesses, not charities, and they operate in a highly unpredictable and challenging industry.
When I try to guess when a person should buy a ticket, I consider these questions:
"How full are the flights in question already?"
"What are the advance ticket rules for the airlines in this market for these city pairs?"
"Is it weekend travel?"
"Is this a high period of travel?"
"How many seats on aircraft are competing on this route?"
"When is the next major holiday in the USA?"
And now, "When is the next major holiday in the country in question?"
By considering these factors, I can make a more informed recommendation for booking flights. It's all about understanding the nuances of the airline industry and finding the best deals for our clients. Even then, it’s always a gamble. Unlike Vegas, in the airline industry, the house does not always win. While there is a lot you can do to make a guess in each case, there is no one single answer or simple way to always get the best price at the best time for the best plane ticket.
People matter more than their money.
As a firm believer in the value of travel, my foremost commitment is to prioritize the needs of every traveler I assist. What matters most is ensuring the best possible experience for my clients. Hence, my fee structure may appear unconventional, as I tailor it to the specific circumstances with an unwavering focus on putting clients' interests at the forefront. In the past couple months I’ve had fifteen different possible trips to NZ and Australia. Four of them are going, so while this is about a case where people are going but I didn’t make any $, that is still better than the remaining 11 that, so far, aren’t going. As for the other three that are going and I am making some $ from that, I thank you extra.
Recently, I encountered a challenging situation while arranging travel plans, particularly for destinations in Australia and New Zealand. Both countries hold a special place in my heart, and I empathize with clients seeking to explore these captivating lands. A particular case involved mature clients eager to embark on a New Zealand journey next year. In our consultation, they wanted late summer or early fall, which would typically be a suitable period. My dedicated focus on these regions during the holidays informed my judgment. Surprisingly, this year presents a unique scenario, as some highly desirable locations, such as the Farm at Cape Kidnappers, MataKauri, and HuKa Lodge, still have availability over the busiest time of the year but regular ol tours are booked to the gills in the shoulder season.
However, my efforts to secure regular small group tours for February and March revealed an unexpected hurdle; nearly all options were already fully booked. This unforeseen circumstance led me to explore alternative avenues. Ultimately, the best solution was large tour company, albeit one that operates exclusively with consumers, thereby bypassing any potential commission for my services. Despite the missed commission opportunity, I firmly believe that the best course of action was to prioritize the clients' interests and provide them with an honest and beneficial option.
This commitment to acting as a travel counselor distinguishes my approach from that of a traditional travel agent. While travel agents often represent airlines, hotels, cruise lines, and tour companies, earning commissions for promoting their offerings, my dedication lies solely with the client. My aim is to deliver unbiased advice, devoid of any preference for higher-paying commissions. As the travel landscape has evolved with complexities, such as resort fees, package pricing, budget carriers, and vacation rentals, I recognize the value of the travel counselor's role in guiding clients towards well-informed decisions and avoiding potential pitfalls due to insufficient understanding of the fine print. I have worked as a travel agent for coming up on 30 years and I’m better than most, but first, I’m a travel counselor.
Ultimately, my goal is to enrich the travel experiences of my clients, irrespective of whether it entails charging a consulting fee instead of relying on commissions. This approach aligns with my genuine desire to facilitate meaningful and enjoyable journeys for those I serve.
In summary, my commitment as a travel counselor is to deliver exceptional service that prioritizes your interests and ensures an unforgettable and seamless travel experience. I look forward to collaborating with you on your upcoming travel adventures.
Post Vacation Blues
Post-vacation blues, also known as post-travel depression or post-holiday syndrome, refers to a temporary emotional state that some people experience after returning from a vacation or a period of travel. It is characterized by feelings of sadness, fatigue, lack of motivation, and a sense of longing for the vacation experience. Adjusting back to the routine and responsibilities of daily life can be challenging, leading to a dip in mood and overall well-being.
If you're dealing with post-vacation blues, here are some steps you can take to help alleviate them:
Give yourself time: Understand that it's natural to feel a bit down after an enjoyable break. Give yourself permission to experience these emotions without judgment. Recognize that it's a temporary phase that will pass with time.
Reflect on your experiences: Take some time to reflect on the positive aspects of your vacation. Reminisce about the enjoyable moments, the people you met, and the places you visited. This reflection can help you appreciate the experiences you had and keep the positive memories alive.
Gradually ease back into routine: Instead of diving headfirst into a hectic schedule, try to ease back into your routine gradually. Allow yourself a few days to adjust before taking on major tasks or responsibilities. Prioritize essential tasks and give yourself space to readjust at your own pace.
Maintain self-care practices: Ensure you're taking care of your physical and mental well-being. Get enough sleep, eat a balanced diet, and engage in regular exercise. Physical activity can help boost your mood by releasing endorphins, the "feel-good" hormones.
Plan something to look forward to: Combat the post-vacation blues by planning something enjoyable for the near future. It could be a weekend getaway, a day trip to a local attraction, or simply scheduling activities you enjoy. Having something to look forward to can help shift your focus and keep your spirits up.
Stay connected with loved ones: Share your vacation experiences with family and friends. Engage in conversations about your trip, show them photos, and relive the memories together. Social support can provide comfort and a sense of connection during the transition back to daily life.
Incorporate elements of vacation into your routine: Find ways to integrate small elements of your vacation into your everyday life. It could be as simple as preparing a meal inspired by a dish you enjoyed while traveling or creating a photo album or scrapbook to preserve your memories. These small reminders can help keep the vacation spirit alive.
Set new goals and challenges: Use the post-vacation period as an opportunity for personal growth. Set new goals or challenges that align with your interests and aspirations. It could be learning a new skill, starting a creative project, or pursuing a hobby. Engaging in meaningful activities can bring a sense of purpose and excitement to your routine.
Remember, the post-vacation blues are typically temporary, and with time and self-care, you'll gradually readjust to your normal routine. If your feelings of sadness persist or significantly impact your daily functioning, it's advisable to seek support from a mental health professional.
Strikes in Europe and American Travel
I had ChatGPT write an article about strikes in Europe. Let me find some wood to knock on before I say this. So far, the industrial actions of the winter and the spring of 22/23 seem to have backed off for summer. I have lost count of how many strike-induced travel issues I’ve had to help clients navigate. Hopefully the upheaval is over and European travel entities will go back to having labor actions once every year or two instead of once every month or two.
Big sigh of relief from over here.
From ChatGPT
Labor strikes and other labor actions are common in the European labor market and have played a significant role in shaping workers' rights and labor conditions across the continent. These actions are organized by trade unions and workers' associations to express dissatisfaction with working conditions, wages, benefits, and other labor-related issues. Here's an overview of strikes and other labor actions in the European labor market:
Strikes: Strikes involve workers collectively refusing to work for a specified period to exert pressure on employers or authorities to address their grievances. They can be categorized into several types:
a. General Strikes: These involve workers across multiple industries and sectors going on strike simultaneously. General strikes aim to demonstrate the collective power of the workforce and put pressure on governments or policymakers to address broader societal or economic issues.
b. Sectoral Strikes: These strikes are specific to a particular industry or sector, such as transportation, healthcare, education, or public services. Workers in these sectors unite to address industry-specific grievances or negotiate sector-specific labor agreements.
c. Localized Strikes: These strikes occur within a specific company or workplace and typically address grievances related to that particular organization. They may be triggered by issues like unfair labor practices, contract negotiations, or unsafe working conditions.Demonstrations and Protests: Apart from strikes, workers and labor unions also organize demonstrations and protests to raise awareness of labor-related issues and advocate for better working conditions. These actions often involve rallies, marches, and public gatherings aimed at attracting attention from the public, media, and policymakers.
Work Stoppages and Go-Slows: In addition to strikes, workers may employ tactics like work stoppages or go-slows. Work stoppages involve temporary pauses in work to highlight specific concerns or grievances. Go-slows refer to intentionally slowing down work output or adhering strictly to work rules and regulations to disrupt normal operations and exert pressure on employers.
Solidarity Actions: In the European labor market, solidarity actions are common, wherein workers from one industry or sector support and join the strikes or actions of workers from another industry. This demonstrates unity among workers and their commitment to improving labor conditions collectively.
Legal Framework: Each European country has its own legal framework governing labor actions, including strikes. These frameworks define the legality of strikes, notice requirements, protection for workers participating in strikes, and restrictions on essential services to ensure public safety and welfare.
Impact and Outcomes: Strikes and other labor actions can have significant impacts on both workers and employers. They can disrupt business operations, affect production, and cause economic losses. However, they also serve as a powerful tool for workers to negotiate better wages, improved working conditions, and stronger labor rights. Successful strikes have led to the establishment of labor laws, collective bargaining agreements, and social reforms that benefit workers across Europe.
It's important to note that specific labor actions, their frequency, and their outcomes can vary widely across European countries, reflecting the unique labor relations and legal systems of each nation.
The price of conspicuous travel
High cost of European Travel this year
I asked ChatGpt about why Europe was so expensive this summer. While I don’t disagree with any of the below, but part of it, perhaps the largest part, must be just greed.
One Example, London. I have some clients headed a little off the beaten path in the Amboise Valley, the Channel Islands, Somerset. They begin in Paris and end in London. I’ll make an example in London (but this is just as true in Paris)
The best hotel in Bath was running 330 GBP a night, a decent hotel with a good location, 120GBP a night. The best hotels in London were in the 2000GBP a night and a decent hotel with a good location? 350GBP a night.
In Ultra popular Mykonos I have clients going and a two bedroom villa at the one resort with a private beach was over 8000 Euro a night. In out of the way Corfu, I have a villa that’s nicer, has closer access to 4 beaches and a whole week is almost 8000 per night.
And to just hammer this in, in places with lots of great deals, the airfare is brutal (Asia, Africa, Australia, I’m looking at you!)
Chatgpt:
The cost of travel to Europe this summer may be higher than usual due to several factors:
High demand: With the easing of travel restrictions and the rollout of vaccines, there is a surge in demand for travel to Europe. As a result, airlines and hotels are charging higher prices to capitalize on this demand.
Limited capacity: Many airlines have reduced their capacity due to the pandemic, leading to fewer available seats and higher prices for the remaining seats.
Supply chain disruptions: The pandemic has caused disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in higher prices for things like fuel, which can drive up the cost of travel.
Government regulations: Some countries in Europe have implemented entry restrictions and requirements, such as mandatory quarantine or negative COVID-19 test results, which can increase the cost of travel.
Dynamic pricing: Airlines and hotels often use dynamic pricing, which means that prices can fluctuate based on demand, availability, and other factors.
All these factors combined can result in higher prices for travel to Europe this summer. However, it's worth noting that prices may vary depending on the destination, time of travel, and other factors, so it's always a good idea to shop around and compare prices from different airlines and travel providers.
The Gamble of Buying Plane tickets
This kind of thing comes up enough that I may make it into a serial.
If you know me, or read my blog much, you know that I often liken buying plane tickets to other forms of gambling.
I’ve got clients that rock, and they rock because they love to share travel with not only their kids, but also their grandkids. Anybody who does this rocks in my book and they go double because they do it in business class. That’s right, these folks, most years if they can, buy a lucky number 13, international business class tickets. In the summer of 2022 they decided to go to Slovenia by flying into Vienna and had a budget of $4k a ticket. They were well in advance, but had to go on Weekends the last week in May through June, because.. Well, kids and school. Trying to coordinate the schedules of one household is tough, that’s 3 times as hard and for 4? Yikes! This is another way the awesomeness of the entire family stands out. You really have to love travel and travel as a family to do this.
The other restrictions for the $4k a ticket is that they wanted to have one stop, in Europe (no USA connections because that’s smart when it’s possible) . There are no nonstop flights to Vienna, but in the summer, from Denver, there are seven to nine (depending on the day of the week) nonstops to Europe that puts over 250 to well over 300 seats to give us options. What is more, is that most of those aircraft have close to 50 business class seats. If we add in the flights operated directly to Vienna from other spots in the USA, we get to add another 5 flights, bringing us up to nearly 500 one stop business class seats to vienna one way or another.
$4k to Europe, for good flights, in the summer, is about as low as it gets. It will get a bit lower, but not much. (Usually) They want to fly together because at least half the point is that they go as a family. So they will need ¼ to ½ of a business class cabin for the use of their family. The smaller flights within Europe are of course, also a factor, but Airlines like to fill seats when it comes to transatlantic flights, especially in business class, so this is a more minor issue. A ¼ of a business class cabin at a lowest price on the ‘fare ladder’ is tough, half is really, really tough.
So this year, they want to go to Chile over winter break. It’s the double whammy down there of the holidays and being summer. A big part of Chilean Patagonia is only really accessible in the summer much like Alaska in the USA. (and summer in Patagonia is AMAZING)
Like $4k a person in European Summer, $5k to Argentina and Chile in their summer, for decent flights,even over the holidays is difficult, but far from impossible.
But it’s the 13 all on the same flights where this goes from “far from impossible” to “pretty close to impossible” and this is compared to via one stop in the summer to Vienna which is merely “difficult”.
Stipulation here is that they fly an American Carrier, for Santiago Chile, that leaves 1 United flight, 1 Delta and 2 operated by American Airlines. That’s 4. Even if we add in the flights from Foreign LaTam and include Mexico city, that number only goes up to 8. What is more, is that these flights have smaller business class cabins. This means we have only about 60 possible seats to work with here. If we add in the LaTam flights, that goes up to about 180 seats. In the comparison. Airline tickets are set by supply and demand, our supply of Ideal options to Chile is about 20% of what it is to Europe.
Then the real rub, all in the same cabin. For Europe, we had flights where we only had to get the lowest price on roughly 25% of the cabin. For Chile, we would be filling at least 45% to over 80% of the cabins…. At the lowest price. This is a complete guess, but I would think that for an airline to offer its lowest price for half of its inventory, we’d have to have a nearly empty aircraft at 45-30 days out. I suspect that if it was nearly empty at that point, the airline would likely look at cutting flights over cutting prices.
In both cases we had the lowest price, for a good schedule at a top time of year ($4k and $5k, respectively). For just 2 people, I’d put this as likely, especially with booking ahead of time and watching things carefully. At 4 people, this gets again, merely difficult, but for 13? Now we are talking nearly impossible.
Be that as it may be, I’m still recommending that these Folks don’t get these tickets now, and that’s because Delta and United may be considering pulling flights or perhaps have a fuel, airport or other matter resolved by a yearly contract still “up in the air”.
Look at this.
First we have AA, they have a flight from Dallas and one from Miami. AAis deeply entrenched in Central and South America. For AA, you need “I” seats for their cheapest Biz Class, “R” seats aren’t too bad and by the time we are left to “J” seats, we are set at at least $10k a ticket.
This is looking a little holiday tough, but it’s clear they are still flying.
Then we have United and Delta. For United, their lowest fares are in P and Z, respectively and Delta is Z and I. Both Airlines have a much higher starting price also. In theory, an AA ticket in business class could bottom out below $3k, where UA and DL are going to be a minimum of around $5.5k, but at the top end, they are all around the $10-11K mark. (Conversely, Europe in the summer can conceivably bottom out at around $2.5K, but can also conceivably get as high as over $18k per seat, and this also illustrated what more inventory can mean for pricing)
But, while AA is offering a normal sort of range of tickets. United and Delta are limited to just ridiculously high inventory (J in both cases) . Which to me says…. These airlines aren’t sure if they are going yet. While AA has 2 flights, that’s actually only about 30 seats in total, while the Delta and the United flights are larger, and each have 30. So, for these folks, for what they want. 2/3rds of the options haven’t even been released yet. As competitive as this market is during Christmas, I wouldn’t buy personally until those airlines fully opened availability.
Sad to say, but this may not be the year for a trip to Patagonia in the holidays. Boo! I hate that answer. I also should say that I don’t know everything and these clients go to Chile fairly often. Maybe they have seen prices drop or have some insight i don’t have. Gosh, I sure hope so. Chile is one of the 3 places in the world that I could sincerely move to and be happy. I really love it there and that’s an amazing time of year
How to pick out an Antartic Expedition
How to evaluate an Antarctica cruise. I’m not going to get into what is nicest or the most luxurious. Most of the Antarctica ships are pretty nice, but we aren’t going to antarctica for luxury are we? The mediterranean and Caribbean aren’t going anywhere, save luxury, entertainment, etc for cruises like this. You are going to Antarctica to see, and understand, antarctica.
First, only 100 people are allowed from any one ship onto Antarctic soil at any given time, ergo, the more over 100 people on the ship you have, the less you are going to be able to get on. Look for itineraries that get you deep into the Antarctic and for that you need a specific kind of ship.
The Design, to get deep into Antarctica, you are only allowed to go if you are on a ship that has at least some icebreaking capability. You are likely looking for an Ulstein X-bow, like the Lindblad Endurance, Aurora Expeditions or an Icebreaker like Ponant’s Le Commandant Charcot. I think those ships set the standard.
The staff… An Antarctic expedition is a foray into the natural world and in this day and age, one on conservation as our polar regions melt. You need highly trained and capable staff. Ones that can read the weather conditions and make the most of your limited time on the Antarctic. You also want people that can not only keep you safe, but also educate you on this fascinating place.
I think that Lindblad, with its National Geographic partnership and its new ship, the Endurance. Is my first choice. I think that for the price, Aurora Expeditions really delivers incredibly well, they may not quite be the best, but for the price. WOW. Then Ponant, if you just need the fancy and are on the Commandant Charcot which is a full-fledged icebreaker.
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I’d like to invite you to learn more about Antarctica. This is a sales thing for sure, but they will give you the benchmark that you should judge any trip by there. Lindblad has a webinar and tell them I sent you. My rep says they will be picking agents for their next fam partially based on their turnout and I would freaking love to add a 6th continent to my personal list.
My Travel Marketing Dilemma
I love the travel industry, I truly do, and like any beloved relationship this means an acceptance of its shortcomings. One of the parts of the business I find most unpalatable is the marketing and this is why I send out so little of it myself.
This has a downside because while I almost never verbalize such things, often, when people call or email I have thoughts like like:
“You want a river cruise? Why didn’t you let me know last month when one of the best lines was doing it’s 50th anniversary sale and had the best deals I’ve ever seen?”
“Safari? Why didn’t you call me last week when my favorite line of Safari lodges was offering an every fourth night free which could’ve saved you $15k over the three spots in Africa you just asked about.
Or,”you want to fly business class to Europe? Why didn’t you call me yesterday when booking 90 days out would’ve saved you $600?
And then I start thinking I should be blasting out every travel deal that comes across my desk, but only briefly. It’s the whole world and if I did that, my clients would have to spend hours every day looking through the needle in the haystack of that particular deal they actually want. Travel companies definitely want me to do that and if they could, they’d take me out of it and just blast you with information that all amounts to “buy this” and while there would be some things in there you would want, most of it, you wouldn’t. Not that it isn’t mostly all pretty good, it’s just so much of it.
This is why I take pains to isolate my client information away from traditional databases. Most of the most popular travel agent based CRMS have built into them powerful data harvesting tools. Those tools meant to go back to airlines, cruiselines, hotels and tour operators so they can be blasted with marketing materials in all forms.
I’ve never taken part in this, frankly, when I went to a seminar about the amount of information that can be learned about a person from just the information required for your average international travel I was horrified. Your income, your expenditures and how to really dial in marketing pinpointed right at you, personally. In the information age, this has found a bold frontier often making us wonder if our computers and cellphones are telepathically eavesdropping on us.
So, not only do I keep my client database off in a heavily encrypted format that wasn’t ever met for the travel industry (I do have a tool that securely translates into flight booking info) I also never share client info except as necessary to make bookings or if a client asks me too. I do hope that a new CRM/booking engine will come out that is actually useful and doesn’t have these data backdoors. It would make mylife a lot easier. I often think I should get some investors and develop one. I think that the internal databases at companies like Expedia have solved these problems and that bringing that down to the level of an individual agent is coming.
All of this is to say. How do I bring my clients what they want, when it will be at the highest value? I don’t know. I’m fantastic at ‘client qualification” but somebody has to reach out to me first for that and a good portion of the time, they are late.
I may put out a survey looking at how you are inspired to travel. How the nontravel professional gets dialed into different destinations is kind of a mystery to me. I sign up for trainings, get inundated with marketing and the basics of my job means researching these things continually. I feel like if I knew what was making people want to travel, I could maybe, just maybe actually send them some selected offers on things they actually want when they are at the greatest value.
If you read this, thanks, this is just me complaining about a situation I often find myself at odds with. I hope the next time you reach out to me with something you want to do, it will be just as an amazing deal, that is just perfect, comes out.
The Return of Last Minute Travel?
When I first started in the travel business in the 90’s there were still a fair amount of ‘last-minute’ deals people could find. I remember looking at a ticket for a weekend trip for months, finding it too expensive and then having the fare drop to a quarter of what it had been a few days before prior. I made the trip. It was fun. That was a tactic for years. If a trip was optional and the airfare was too dang high, check again at 22, 15 and 8 days prior to see if it dipped. Often it would go up, but sometimes down and sometimes down a lot. Then, that tactic stopped working and for many years after that, last minute became synonymous with expensive. at least with airlines. While there have always been exceptions and the occasional last minute deal, by and large, up until the Covid 19 pandemic, this was the case.
During the Pandemic I saw a trend of AMAZING deals followed by mounting prices to the point that they seemed like extortion. Now… it seems like the reverse is often true. Where we start with extortionate pricing and then, sometimes, it winnows down to some decent pricing. I wrote about this in terms of Spring break awhile back and if we take Cabo for Spring break as an example. Back that Saturday to Saturday was a whopping $1400+ in economy during the THICK of spring break and… it still is. However, midweek departures have dropped considerably and if we look out to the last weekend of February we are down to $420! Which is close to a traditionally ‘normal’ price for a nonstop flight to Los Cabos in the Spring. For it being close to Spring break, that’s actually on the cheap side (historically).
That’s just one example where I had notes to refer back to. Now, I’ve made more, because I’m curious to see how this pans out over this year.
It’s going to be interesting to pay attention to the summertime transcon flights (especially this summer to Europe) and then at some point to Asia and Oceania (where prices are REALLY inflated for flights especially). We’ve had a lot of really, really high fares and now I’m seeing in the Spring, some dips. Same with Hotels. I saw some of the highest prices in Mexico I’ve ever seen last fall and I just looked a bit this week and found some deals. I priced one of the best All Inclusives in Los Cabos (Le Blanc) for a good $2500 less for a week than it was back in November. My wife has friends and family back in the Midwest who want a visit and a few weeks ago, prices through March were a steady $250-$300 a ticket at least to not only Milwaukee, but even Chicago, and yesterday at 22 days prior, I ticketed O’hare for $150.
I think that the reason may be because of the recovery continuing from the Pandemic. You see, the Trend I noticed with Air NZ is a trend I noticed a lot as travel started to take off, but was still shaky. Ticket prices started high and then rather than cutting ticket prices, the airlines cut flights. I think that the reason the airlines were able to do this was because they also weren’t carrying much cargo and this played a part in all of the ‘supply chain’ issues we are still climbing out of. I think that now that airlines are starting to take cargo obligations on again they are starting to be forced to drop ticket prices sometimes. I don’t know when, I don’t have the cargo manifests, I sure wish I did.
Similar with the hotels. Staffing was (and is) such a problem that many resorts and hotels were not going up to capacity quite purposefully. Many took on more than they should have and their reputations suffered for it (especially in the luxury market) then their sales pick up where they could and had to hire. Now that their staff have started to grow, they’ve also started becoming more aggressive in pricing to fill room nights. Not predictably, not yet.
I think if you have very set and rigid dates, you may be stuck because if you are stuck flying at prime time for something you have your heart stuck on, it will have to be in advance. Grand Velas, the best family All-inclusive in Los Cabos, has been largely sold out for spring break for weeks now.
But… if you are flexible about where you want to go within say.. Half a dozen places and when… start checking some dates that work for you at least twice a month and you may get very happily surprised.
And, also a really good time to keep your options refundable and flexible, don’t get locked in, especially if something seems high. Then, make a point of rechecking things every few weeks before you go. You could be surprised.
Is a private tour guide worth the price?
Is that private guide worth the price? Probably.
I’m having this come up for a client who asked me the question “is a private tour guide worth it,” And more specifically, in this case, “Is it worth paying top dollar for, what should be, a top quality tour guide?”
Travel is an interesting thing to purchase and has a component that is akin to gambling. This is first true with flights, hotels and even many train tickets, where given availability, moment to moment governs price. (as well as other things, but that’s another blog) We have all seen this. You book a plane ticket for $1000 on year, the next year you come back and it’s$2000. You book a swanky hotel for $800 a night and six months later it’s $400 a night, and so on.
Guiding is largely not like this. Prices tend to move much more slowly and guides tend to have set rates, raising them only as they have to. However, there is still a gambling aspect to this, and this is what I want to unpack.
First, how can it work out? A friendly and knowledgeable local can bring a travel experience up in value perhaps more than anything else. I mean that, whether it's for a few hours or even a few weeks. Insider tips and privileged access are a thing.
Knowledge can bring so much to an experience. That can be historical knowledge such as why this statue is important, or what this mark is (bullet, really?) or whatever. It can be practical such as “We can see the whole museum in the least amount of time if we go this way,” or “This is the best place for coffee when you get off the boat.” Or “Don’t bother with those guys, they just want to sell you some cheap made in China knockoffs, I can take you to the real thing if you are interested. “ At the very least, even a halfway decent guide will make you feel at ease and will make the most of your time.
Sometimes, it goes way beyond that!
Maybe you go into the Sydney Opera house and maybe, just maybe, you get out onto the stage with somebody that belts out a few notes and lets you call out to the back row with the place empty. Maybe your food tour in the Amalfi ends with some chilled limoncello and maybe it ends with some Lemoncello somebody’s grandmother made last year with the sfusato lemons she grows in her backyard and painstakingly peels with no pith at all. Maybe you do a trip down the Philosopher’s path in Gion, Japan and maybe you do it and get to see it from that one temple that largely doesn’t allow tourists, but has one local they let do it because his uncle is the “Shike” of the temple. These things can never be adverstised. Sometimes, they are rehearsing on the stage in Sydney. Sometimes Grandma isn’t giving up any more of her ‘special” limoncello and sometimes the temple has folks meditating and you can’t go in. However, all of these are real examples.
But how can it go bad?
First, every once in a while, you get a guide that just isn’t good. People like me sniff these kind out soon. I will show up to most places already pretty well-informed and I probably studied up before I got to the destination anyway. Maybe I read a novel, maybe I looked at website, maybe I watched a youtube video. Regardless, I’m going to most places already knowing a fair amount and doing my best to know more. I’m the guy that stands at the front of the line or in the front of the van/car and peppers the guide with question after question. Good guides love this and I love it more. Bad guides hate it and I hate it more. Usually, (but not always) you can control this by going through a quality outfit and with a licensed guide (if that country has them).
Sometimes flights go badly even when you are flying on the most expensive tickets. I will take that in stride. Sometimes even the most expensive hotels fall behind in quality and I am much less lenient on this but a bad guide is perhaps the worst thing. I once heard about a guide who got lost in the Medina of Marrakech. I understand where that is, but you are a GUIDE I was livid. I’ve blackballed (personally) that company ever since.
The other thing is that sometimes the guide can be good, but the personal aspect is off. Most guides are knowledgeable and personable. They do a good job and tailoring your experience to you, but even the best have bad days and chemistry is chemistry. Outside of a few African Safari Guides (which is some HIGH LEVEL guiding) the finest guide I ever had was in the Azorean Islands. He knew everything and seemed to KNOW EVERYBODY on Sao Miguel. Everywhere we went, there was a secret something just for us. I loved him, he was the epitome of a Latin Gentleman. He was the best guide on the island and when a certain famous foodie did a special on the Azores. The chemistry wasn’t there, they didn’t get along and that famous guy (when he was alive) wouldn't give the glowing review that I do. Chemistry is chemistry.
I’d say, that at least 9 times out of 10, if you pay more for the better guidance, that will prove to be a high value item. That the guide will take a good experience and change it into something you will remember for the rest of your life. Being who I am, with a voracious appetite for knowledge and travel related knowledge, I’m a soft target for this. I’m also the guy that will read every plaque in a museum and studies for my vacations. However, even if you are just looking for a better, smoother, more efficient experience. Still worth it most of the time. Time abroad is precious and making the most of it, only makes sense.
However for almost everything in Travel, there is a gamble to it. There are bad experiences even with the best guides. I will say this. At a guess, for every time I’ve gotten a complaint about a guide, I’ve had probably 5 stories much to the reverse. Like, a person going back and getting the same guide, or sending a friend to that destination and saying you’ve got to get HIM to show you the markets of Barcelona and teach you to cook real paella. Sometimes, people become friends and book the same guides year after year…. Well, that last one is mostly just Africa, but still. The point is that usually, a high-priced and valued guide IS worth the money.
Exploiting the strength of USD for the American Traveler
This started when I noticed how expensive some things were, especially over spring break. I also was noticing a number of great prices, here and there and I started looking as how to lay them out. The answer here is EXCHANGE rates.
Frankly, I have been floored at some prices I’ve seen and exchange rate seems to be playing pretty hard here.
I’d like to share here.
Here are some numbers I priced now and October of 2020, this is the amount that $1000.00 USD works out to in Local Currency. I give some examples of why, I think, this leads to great deals.
The first column is the currency.
The Second column how much of that local currency $1000.00 USD is equal to (or was on 20th of October)
The Third column is how much of that currency $1000.00 USD would have purchased 2 years ago.
The last column expressed this change as a discount. This is something from 2 years ago, but frankly the dollar was still fairly strong 2 years ago. What is a 29% savings in Japan now is 46% savings compared to Japan at the worst exchange rate (for American tourists). The South African rand may only be 9% less now, but it’s 50% less when it’s exchange rate was most extreme. Argentina… is nearly 60% less than it was 10 years ago (when I was there, btw)
Mexico and Brazil are two countries that actually gained strength against the dollar and below the image. I have more below the image and at the bottom, some quick examples of what led me to do this. It’s good, because in places like Thailand and Vietnam, the exchange rate was already amazing and while it’s better now, there is still better value in South East Asia than nearly anywhere else.
I also checked what the amount would have been at the worst time (for the traveler) in the past 10 years, but I had to do the math myself there, so those figures are less reliable. Which is why I didn’t post those. I do mention those below.
Some standouts and examples… With the two most startling ones at the top of the list and they are two of my favorite countries.
Argentina
October 2020 USD$1000.00 was ARG$82,500
Today USD$1000.00 is ARG$159,000 This is at least part of the reason that the Four Seasons New York is running $1200USD for the beginning of winter and the Four Seasons in Buenos aires is running $816USD per night for the beginning of summer. Both dates are of course, in November, but Southern Hemisphere y’all! I had a look at my favorite boutique in the Palermo district. $209 a night!!! That is officially the lowest price I’ve ever seen. With the exchange rate being nearly half of what it was and more than half of what it was when I went there on my honeymoon. It’s not surprising!
Japan
October 2020 USD$1000.00 would’ve brought in JPY ¥105500
Today USD 10000 = JPY ¥148800! Folks that is 29% lower rate and that is 46% lower than the exchange rate in October of 2012! This means that the Green Japan rail pass (that’s the good one) is only $472 for two weeks.
I can tell you that I have seemnthat pass be nearly twice that price in the past! Tokyo is still Tokyo the Four Seasons is just $662, which is a bargain (also that’s the older one at Otemachi, the new Marunochi is more) For Bargain hunters (like me last time I was there and couldn’t get an agent rate) The Hotel Sunroute Plaza near Shinjuku with super easy airport access. $92 a night for a single! WOW! For what they are, both of those are sensational rates!
Here are some things I researched that led me to look at the currencies on a bigger scale.
First of all, One of the reasons Mexico is higher because it is one of the few countries that has a better (for Mexico, bad for tourists) exchange rate now than 2 year ago when $1000 bought you 21177 pesos compared to now when it buys you 19992 Peso. So, that’s part of the mystery on why Mexico is pricing higher now. I also noticed this higher pricing with Luxury hotels all over which have to pay more for good service and in certain destinations aimed at leisure travelers.
What really triggered me to notice that some places are very well priced, was looking in Asia and in Argentina. (some examples at the bottom)
The Euro is 16% lower October 2020 and is nearly 30% lower than it was in May of 2014.
The Pound is 12% lower than 2 years ago and 32% lower than it was at its highest (To USD)
Australian Dollar 11%now and 40% to its highest exchange rate about 10 years ago and NZD! 15% lower than 2 years ago and 37% lower than its worst exchange rate (at about the same time the dollar was doing poorly for Australian exchanges).
The South African (Safari?) is about 8% lower than 2 years ago, but fully 51% lower than it’s highest point.
Since I did South Africa. Kenya is 8% lower than 2 years ago and 38% lower than it got in 2013.
Botswana is 14% lower than 2 years ago and 42% lower than it was at it’s highest 10 years ago.
Also in South America, while the Chilean Peso is 16% lower than it was 2 years ago (and nearly half what it was at it’s lowest point) the Brazilian Real is like Mexico and actually has improved against the dollar to the tune of 6%. I also forgot to look at Peru and Ecuador… shoot. Oh well, next time.
Asia was really good and the exchange rate has always been awesome for Westerners.
The Thai baht is 18% lower, the Vietnamese Dong is 5% lower, the Indian rupee is 10% lower, the Nepalese rupee is 11% lower, the Indonesia Rupiah is 5 % lower and not much movement on Malaysian Ringitts. To give some reference there, one of my favorite hotels is Vietnam is the Anantara Quy Nohn is running $500 a night for an OceanFront Villa the Anantara Dhighu in the Maldives (not much movement there also) is running $1325 s night for one of their villas. And where I stayed on my last trip (again, no agent rates) the decent Au Lac Charner was $65 a night and that included the afternoon tea on the roof. Bangkok, remember the rate at the Four Seasons in New York and Buenos Aires? $448 a night y’all! And frankly, that may be the best FS of the ones I’ve mentioned here and that’s the truth. There are number of places in Bangkok that are around $100 a night that I would’t mind at all. The Six Senses in Samui, $347 a night. Compare that to the Six Senses in Ibiza $763 a night. And guys, it is WAY nicer in late November in the Gulf of Thailand than it is in the Mediterranean!
A plan thwarted
As I said, I’ve been noticing higher prices all over, but with some real deals also. I got the really egregious pricing looking at Spring break trips and that started an investigation that ultimately led to nothing thanks to the airlines pulling back flight availability.
I was going to note that Mexico was pricing high itself and on key days. Airfare was really high. Key spring dates of 18-25 of March was nearly $900 a person in Economy to Cancun on Southwest. United was about $1200 a person, the following weekend was worse and Cancun had the best prices of any nonstop from denver.
I was going to offer some alternatives, most notably the Canary Islands was less expensive to fly to. And while All-inclusive resorts are available there (most notably on Tenerife) Spanish Canary Islands are very safe, so a very nice vacation to somewhere beautiful and warm was easily possible. For beaches, I had Thailand all laid out with $800 airfare (!!!) and a longer trip could be done at better beaches for much less.
Before that happened, I got as far as pricing this strictly “meh” all-inclusive package in Cancun with this slightly better one in Tenerife and an option with just an apartment hotel and a rental car for a real bargain because I don’t think a full-fledged resort is really necessary in the Canary islands.
I was pricing out Thailand (which is much harder) and Then the airlines put a stop to both of those, the excellent schedule (Tenerife) and prices (Thailand) and I also realized that almost none of my clients book economy anyway and premium airfares are a totally different thing. As a parent myself, I feel the whoa of somebody trying to take a family vacation when ALL the families are trying to take a vacation. Thinking outside of the box can be helpful.
However, I did think of a much better way to look for bargains based on Exchange rates.
Why travelers don’t like to answer what their “budget is”.
There is a question that most people hate to be asked about travel.
“What is your budget?”
The question causes anxiety, because costs in Travel vary wildly. There is a gambling aspect to booking travel, especially airfare, but really all kinds of travel. With most things we buy, we have some idea of what we should pay, travel is often surprising (both surprisingly expensive and surprisingly inexpensive in turn)
People look for simple strategies posing questions like.
“Should I book this now, or wait?”
“Is it better to book on this particular day of the week?”
“Is $(insert almost any $ figure here) amount, a reasonable amount of $ for this plane ticket, hotel room, tour, transfer, cruise or whatever.”
There are no simple answers to any of these questions. I look at travel prices all the time, literally hours of my week, every week, are involved in this. Shoot! I Have to guess and I’m really good at it and know what to look for and do this every damn day nearly The only real barometer for pricing on any given travel item is how it is pricing against its competitors. Sometimes booking early screws you, sometimes waiting does. Sometimes what may look expensive to you is actually a great price and sometimes what looks cheap, is actually quite expensive.
So, if I ask you this question. I understand why you don’t want to answer it. No matter how good a deal you get, you are going to want a better one if possible. If you have a big budget, that’s no reason to get taken advantage of. If you have a small one, that doesn’t mean your trip is impossible.
When I ask the question “what is your budget.” I look at it as how can I squeeze the most value out of this budget? . However, if you are worried that some travel people are looking for you to answer so they know how much money they can squeeze out of YOU. Well. Honestly, like any business, there are some people that do want to know how much money they can get out of you.
So while it does make me happy when I get a budget to make the most of, I get why people don’t like answering that question.
For most destinations I have some idea of what things should cost, but I’m often surprised. The world changes and the world travel market is a reflection of that. I was surprised by a number of prices in the standard “Spring Break” markets, which is what prompted this set of blogs.
The rising price of travel
One of the most strange things about the last few years in Travel have been the prices.
In the past few years, I have literally seen the LOWEST and the HIGHEST prices in travel I’ve EVER seen. Covid really made things jump all over the place..
Now prices are mostly rising, but not universally. I have found some amazing deals here and there. Especially in some destinations and I dug into the deals in another blog, this blog is on why I think prices are going up.
Here are some things driving it.
A lot of hotels, airlines, and other companies barely survived the pandemic. Many are in debt and they are bent on making some money back.
We’ve all noted that for, whatever reason, there are less people available to work, particularly in service positions.
Between “revenge travel” and less available places to travel to, Many destinations have been inundated with travelers, overwhelmed in fact.
Fuel.
Prices have been highest in the luxury arena. Right now I’m looking at a city in Europe where 3 luxury hotels have reigned supreme for some years now. I’m also looking at a small boutique hotel that I very much like. Historically, this hotel is about half of what those elite properties are. Right now, it’s closer to a third to a quarter of them and all four are more expensive than I’ve ever seen.
This WSJ article about Disneyworld/Disneyland, really crystallized this for me. When it comes to high service items. This is the trend. Places are charging more money, to bring more, to fewer people. Disney is a really interesting thing to look at, because it effectively has no competition. Others have tried, but Disney is Disney, other amusement parks just do not compare. Some are better than Disney in some ways, but Disney is unique. Love it or hate it (or love it AND hate it, as I do). What is very easy to see with Disney, is fairly prevalent everywhere. I also will point out that this, for Disney, only really goes to the hotel side. The Parks were BOOMING a veritable army of staff and the hotels don’t even have room service! BOO! Disney, if there isn’t room service is it even really a hotel? I say no! I just got back from Disneyland and the hotel was nice, but no room service and even housekeeping was behind the ball a bit. But with that said, I have one happy little girl, as you can see, if you look at the video on instagram I posted.
Also, I am NOT a Disney Expert.
The only thing I see kind of unifying the better pricing are current exchange rates which are GREAT for the American traveler. I have some research on that in another blog.
Air New Zealand… the jig is up
Will Air NZ be able to obtain the high cost it’s demanding for Holiday Flights? Maybe not this year.
This is excerpted from a client that planned a trip to New Zealand and the Cook Islands (Raratonga) just a few weeks prior to the “Pandy” hitting. He rebooked and has Air NZ credit he wants to Use, but the Realities of New Zealand travel along with the pricing and available routes of Air New Zealand have made that very hard indeed. I dug into this hard enough to want to share it with whomever may be interested.
Well, I'm afraid after digging in and finally getting somebody at Air NZ. I don't have good news. Air NZ has finally completely thrown in the towel on the Raratonga-LAX nonstop. What is worse is that, the flights from Raratonga to Auckland have also been cancelled. Worse still, is that Air NZ seems to be bent on revenue Recovery and offering very high prices for the holidays.
The below may be more than you want to know, but I said I'd dig into this thoroughly and I have.
The only possible ray of light that I may have to offer is that I think it's possible that Air NZ is overplaying their hand and demanding too high a price on a destination that people still feel unsure of. It's possible, that Air NZ will be forced to lower their prices as travel dates get closer, here is why.
While travel is finally now allowed in NZ, it's one of the few countries left that is still testing vaccinated travelers on arrival. A positive test means a 7 day quarantine and there are many, many places with far lighter restrictions. Below are seat maps of an LAX Auckland flight on the 18th of December which should be one of the busiest travel days of winter. Normally, that aircraft would be sold out, but we can see by the seat map it isn't. Beyond that, that aircraft is even more empty than it appears to be. Rows 37-48, never come up as available because those are Air NZ "Skycouch" seats that have some extra hoops (and cost) to book. LAX-Auckland-LAX is going for $3246.00 on the normally very busy days. That price seems, to me, artificially inflated, banking on the hopes of what was one of the most popular destinations in the world coming back to world prominence. There is a definite possibility we could see fares drop and drop dramatically as dates get closer. In October November, those LAX-AKL flights are in some cases about $1346, a good $2k less! than what they are in December. The top two screenshots are screenshots of December 18th ($3246 round trip) and November 7th ($1343 round trip) Note how different they are not.
With all of that said, Air NZ also has an ace card up it's sleeve to avoiding having to lower airfares to fill aircraft. These 777 are their largest seats with 342 passengers. They are currently operating on a reduced enough schedule that it's possible they could swap in their 787-900's, which max out at 275 passengers.
Air NZ flight 5, Saturday, December 18th, front and back halves of economy cabin. Remember that much of the forward section of economy seats are Air NZ “Sky Couch” seats that will not come available (though this GDS system) until a ticket is issued. So while some of them may be booked, they are just as likely not booked.
This seat map of an Air NZ 777-300 ER will show what I mean. It should be noted that it’s not uncommon for Sky couches to be booked with one Aisle seat in the center section. I can tell you that I’d book the Sky Couch for my wife and daughter and likely end up in the Aisle seat for the duration.
Economy tickets Round trip with 18 December as an outbound can go as high as $3246 (and aren’t getting too fare below $3k as far as I can tell)
Economy Tickets Round trip with 07 November as an outbound are going as low as $1335.00
Normally the Holiday season is EXTREMELY popular for New Zealand and Air NZ seems to be gambling that it will be again. I’m sure it will, but I’m not sure about this year.
November 7th.
Musings on Holiday and Spring Break Travel
The next Holiday travel that you could be early on is Spring Break. I have enough winter/Christmas travel to tell you that booking the Holidays is looking rough for Europe. I have a Switzerland for new years that contacted me a month ago and we were lucky enough to find a home rental because every nice hotel in Zermatt was taken. Flights are looking very, very rough for Europe. Folks, If you need help with Europe between December 17th 2022 and January 8th, 2023 I’m going to be charging extra for it. It’s that rough.
But ntt everywhere. Most notably where it normally is the worst.
Australia and New Zealand are actually looking better for availability than one might expect. Post-pandemic Oz is pretty much open and New Zealand is opening. The airlines on these routes seem to be bent on revenue recovery as the fares are very high(which may have a lot to do with the nice availability!!!). I am seeing airfares on peak days for economy class at least 50% above what I have in the past. However, interestingly, I also found a lot of availability in top spots over new years such as by Darling Harbor, Queenstown, Sunshine Coast and Bay of Islands. I even found the Farm at Cape Kidnappers with some availability!!!!! (not on NYE itself) with only a 2 night minimum stay and in the past, that amazing spot has always had 3 night minimum stay for the holidays. I don’t know what to say about the flight prices, the seat maps don’t seem sold out enough to justify the prices which seem inflated, but normally, by this time of year, the holidays down under are a nonstarter. Right now it seems pretty doable, except for a brutal airfare price and… rough air ratings. This is winter down under and not peak season, but Air NZ, Qantas, Jetstar has some of the worst on time/cancellation ratings in July. I’d go to those spots, but I’d try hard to look at travel solutions that didn’t involve flying. I’m actually seeing some sales over the holidays in addition to just availability. There are some exceptions, some of the real powerhouses such as Lizard Island and Capella Lodge seem to be just as sold out as they normally are for the holidays by the previous August, but generally. If one were able to take a very long holiday to Australia and at least several days longer down to New Zealand. I’d say go for it and I’d be jealous too. The Key would be to add enough time to be able to make your way over land, and in Australia, that’s a long, damn time. Still… Knowing what the holidays are usually like down there, I find this proposition attractive. I love my daughter, but if she weren’t in elementary school I’d be looking at finding an angle to work from the Southern Hemisphere this year!
Speaking of seatmaps. Looking forward to spring break. Mexico demand seems down (again going by seat maps) but Costa Rica and Hawaii seem up, I'm wondering how much of Hawaii is the beginning of Asian tourists starting to return. I had some Hawaii this year, but TONS last year and I’ve heard from some hotelier contacts in Hawaii that foreign tourism is pretty huge this year to Hawaii. I’m also seeing some key Caribbean flights on top days start to go.
I almost didn’t look at flight prices. I can get a better idea of how flights are really selling by looking at seat maps and I’m glad I did because WOW! Price GOUGE Alert. $1400 for a nonstop to Los Cabos? That’s for a flight with less than 3% of its seats assigned. Liberia-Costa Rica $2640?!?! These are economy prices!! I simply loathe San Jose and especially Santa Maria Airport. But you could take your whole family with Copa Airlines to San Jose for less than one ticket on that very peak time! Heck you could also add the stop overs for free and check out some stuff in Panama. OMG. Somebody is going to call me and the conversation is going to start like this “I already booked my hotel for spring break and…” And I’m going to stop him right there. Folks. I just looked and the airfare isn’t egregious everywhere for spring break, but CHECK THE FLIGHTS FIRST. OMG. Some places it’s actually quite affordable, but for the ill-planned, there are going to be some ugly surprises.
An Update on Aviation overall
As you know, I consider my primary expertise to be in travel advising. I take that seriously.
In June and July, I had more clients affected by airline delays and cancellations than I didn’t. This included for my own travel for a family scuba trip to Aruba in late June, where I witnessed horrifyingly long lines at both Charlotte and Miami. When I got home, I started reaching out to Airline representatives and poring over data. I want to know if there is an end in sight for delays, cancellations and other “schedule irregularities” that are above and beyond normal amounts that come from weather and maintenance related issues.
Here are some things that I found out.
This is currently worse in Europe. I am in no way anti-union, but in the USA these issues are seemingly being handled in a free market way. After reaching out to the big legacy carriers of American, Delta and United. I have some interesting updates. The European carriers are facing delays from strikes as well as the other issues of staffing and delayed maintenance on aircraft and airlines that is affecting everyone.
I am still advocating for conservative flight schedules. This means, but is not limited to.
Keep an eye out for strikes for European Carriers and a look at airline stats after. For example, once August is past and OTP (On time Performance) data is available, i will be very curious to see if Air France’s statistics improve. Likewise, Lufthansa has just settled a strike.
Early departures where possible
Longer connection times
Avoidance of partner carriers in Europe where possible with a greater look towards alternatives such as rail
While I have been looking forward to Australian and New Zealand travel, I am disturbed by their ontime statistics given that their high season is still months off.
The Middle Eastern Carriers seem to remain safe bets.
The Asian Carriers that have been up and near to full operations for most of 2022 seem to be doing well such as Singapore and the Japanese Carriers. However the Chinese and Taiwanese carriers, that are still far from full capacity, are currently a wild card. Additionally, There remains drastically less airline capacity in Asia as there was 3 years ago, as a result, prices are largely still very high compared to pre pandemic figures.
In the United States, I fully expect to see these issues resolve by next summer and possibly even by the holidays. Worldwide, remains to be seen.
With all of that said, despite this, this appears to be a golden time to travel as countries welcome back tourists. People are happy to see us and despite the difficulties in aviation, I’ve never gotten so many glowing reviews of travel experiences as I have this summer.
Until things improve, still travel, but with some modifications. I’ve detailed all of this, but just to put it all down. Build in extra time in transit both in hours in connections and in days when it comes to big events. Pack light, consider shipping and get some air tags for your bags when you must check. If you can reach a destination in less than 6 hours without flight (via car, train, boat, etc.) do that. Look for the earliest flights of the day and if you can avoid the last connection of the day to a destination, take an an earlier one. Download the airline app(s) of the airlines you are going to fly, they could save you a terrible wait time to get rebooked. Be mindful of weather patterns, avoid the southern Airports if possible August, September and even October, Avoid the Northern Airports where possible November through March…or so and be nice to airline staff. Keep Calm and Travel on. If that’s too much, just call me when you want to travel and I got you.
I’ve done some deeper dives with the American Legacy Carriers in other blogs. Check em out.
United is looking to the future
So United’s performance, this summer, really hasn’t been too bad at all.
EXCEPT, where it’s international codeshare partners are involved as Air Canada is just reeling and Lufthansa is hunkering down (it appears) to fight out a strike into October. That was resolved recently with groundstaff, but it remains to be seen how the flight operations for this huge carrier go. Swiss Air, SN Brussels and Austrian are closely connected to their German partner. Asian Partners Air China and EVA are still anemic and recovering. Asiana and All Nippon appear to be doing well.
United seems to be looking to the far future in the most innovative ways possible (and the least human, directly)
So the first one is extremely cool, meet Boom Supersonic. Their “Overture” Aircraft is bent not only at travel at Mach 1.7 but also, doing it at a Zero Carbon cost. That mach 1.7 is a cruising speed!. The sweet and new 787-900s cruise at 560mph. The Overture won’t be 3 times as fast, but it will be at least twice as fast. People fundamentally understand that time in transit is lost time. This aircraft will have a small capacity and be very expensive no doubt, but it certainly is cool and will game change the routes UA uses it for.
The second option is cool in a much more meaningful way: Meet Dimensional Energy . To be fair, United has looked deeply into Hydrogen and Electrical aircraft a great deal, any cheaper way to propel an aircraft and they are into that. However, that company is looking to capture carbon directly from the atmosphere and turn it into fuel. Apparently, United feels strongly enough about this it’s also looking heavily at how to use the carbon credits that would flow heavily from such technology to help out its business partners. United has always been the airline focused the most on the business traveler.
UA’s focuses all seem pretty long range. I’d be nervous about them in the near future as their partners are in a furor right now. However, if their long range investments pay off, they may dominate the future. The prospect of an airline that can limit or even negate its own carbon footprint with carbon capturing its own fuel will be a game changer if it’s realistic. I sure hope it does.
American Airlines is looking to dominate Travel in the USA in the near future…
If I were looking to book serious travel in the next year. I’d have an extra preference on AA. Below is what my rep said to me and below that, I have some more things to consider. AA is responding to the crisis with money and lot’s of it! They are looking to hire away as many aviation employees as possible it seems. They are also concluding the largest aircraft order in history. AA seemed to have been hit hardest by aviation woes, they seem most bent on turning that over with cash being king.
Hi there Jacob. Hope all is well with you.
Ill share what I can with you. Hopefully this helps. Not just operational, but airline wide. These are talking points from HDQ.
Capacity plan
Our fleet harmonization project is now nearly complete. Our last A321 is going into the shop this quarter, is a full year ahead of our original schedule.
Since 2013 we’ve invested $24 billion to create the youngest mainline fleet of aircraft among U.S. network carriers. Our modern fleet has allowed us to improve our fuel efficiency by 8.5% since 2013 — the equivalent of taking 3 million cars off the road for a year.
Our new narrowbody aircraft are up to 44% more efficient per seat we fly when compared to our retired aircrafts that flew the same standard distance
More people are traveling for blended business leisure purposes, and willing to go by themselves into a premium fare product when a cheaper one is available.
We see a blurring of lines where the trip patterns are changing.
Thursday, which is still our biggest business day of the week, is also becoming one of our biggest leisure days of the week.
We're having more people who buy business style fare products, travel as if it's a business trip, but they're going to places like Fort Walton Beach.
And we can trace the things where people work Fridays remotely or can spend a week or two at a time, working from some place that is not where they live.
Our premium cabin sales have been the most robust in places like the Caribbean and leisure destinations in the U.S.
We still expect business travel to come back in full, but it will come back in a different way.
The overall mix of business customers, how they travel and how we serve them.
Small and medium-sized business travel remains the strongest segment.
We're optimistic that as corporate travel returns in a significant way this year and as companies come back more fully into the office and get back on the road, we're going to be back on track.
Staffing - We’re optimistic about attracting top talent. American pays well and is a great place to work. We’re hiring 20,000 people at American this year, and we always have more applicants than we have positions to fill because it’s such a great company to work for
As far as I can tell, in the below above email from my rep, especially with Pilots, She is understating that American is “Paying well”.
Here is an episode of the “Pilot to Pilot” Podcast where this issue is talked about by folks in that industry. These guys are just blown away by how American is hiring and how they are paying.
There is some more in the news here too: Like this Article and this one also. While all of the big airlines are employing big training strategies and other measures for more pilots and staff. AA is the only one putting their “money where their mouth is”. Cash is King people. The guys in the podcast are wondering how AA can afford to pay pilots as they appear to be and I’d say it’s those new planes (the largest aircraft order in history ) is part of why perhaps.
I’m staying on top of this, but for now, even though AA has never been a personal favorite of mine, I will be looking more to AA where possible for my clients in the next year so long as their OTP (On Time Performance) continues to improve. American partner, British Airways is struggling, but Finnair and Iberian seem to be doing well (so far)! Asian Partners Cathay Pacific remains anemic, but Japan Airlines seems to be doing well. Outlook for Australian Partner Qantas is yet to have its test when summer (our winter) down under hits in 2022/23. So far Qantas’s performance for this summer (their winter) does not bode well for this.
In the end, as far the operations that AA conducts itself, if money can fix it, then they are going to!
Delta is hitting it Grass Roots to restore their service in the skies
So, I love Delta airlines. I really do. More than any other major US airline they seem to be most invested in the social impact of what they do and have been doing for some time. They have their new “Propel” program to help out with college educations, but the “dream flight” program, that’s coming back after the pandemic.
https://propel.delta.com/content/propel/en_US/collegepath.html
https://news.delta.com/building-deltas-future-creating-youth-pipeline-aviation-pros
Delta seems most involved on a grass roots level. I hope it pans out and AA doesn’t just hire them away.
This kind of testimonial isn’t unusual from Delta. I’ve done hub tours with Delta, United and AA and I can tell you my experience is that Delta staff seemed the most dialed in and enthusiastic about their jobs. Each carrier seems to be placing it’s emphasis in different places. Delta seems to be focusing more on grassroots growing of staff and while less of an emphasis on new equipment than AA in the short term, still considerable.
“It’s rare to find a culture and company with this much history and this much care for its own employees, while also operating with such an urgency for innovation and improvement. It’s motivating to be a part of it every day.” - Vijay Murali
Additionally, Air France has resolved a strike as of July and it seems their performance is improving. KLM continues to be a difficulty and ITA is still, just getting off of its feet. Down Under, Virgin Australia seems to still be depending entirely on Delta for North American Traffic, but seems to be handling flights within Oz fairly well, with a caveat that peak travel is far from resumed. Korean Air is one of the strongest Asian Carriers right now. China Eastern is still anemic and struggling.
I hope the best for Delta. I will also note that Delta’s On Time Performance actually improved in June and July. The American Carriers maintain such huge fleets, that it’s rare to see them break into the top 50 best performing carriers in a given Month, Delta did this in July at number 41.