A new insight on predicting flight prices (possibly)
You know, it's funny how business travel and leisure travel seem to follow different patterns. Typically, for us Americans, Spring travel starts booking right after Thanksgiving and goes into overdrive after Christmas. Then, Summer travel bookings start shortly after Christmas and peak around spring break and Easter. Memorial day kicks off the holiday travel season, which goes into overdrive around the 4th of July, and then things tend to calm down until Thanksgiving. It's not until a few days after New Year's that things start getting crazy again. I mean, think about it, how often do you finish one vacation and already start dreaming about the next one?
Back in the day, I worked at two travel agencies where I could take a leave of absence from the middle of July all the way to the first week of January if I wanted to (ah, the good old times).
Now, let me tell you about this interesting experience I had. I've been keeping an eye on New Zealand over the holidays because some of my high-end clients are interested in it. The business class tickets have been averaging about $12k each, and those are the cheaper ones from SFO. My clients from Denver and New York are looking at even higher prices!
Air New Zealand is the main carrier, and they are part of the Star Alliance, with United Airlines as their USA partner. After the 4th of July, United experienced a surge in bookings, and that brought down the cost of flights operated by Air New Zealand by about $1500 per ticket. Then, about 8 or 9 days later (depending on how you look at it), Matariki, the Maori New Year, hit in NZ, and Air NZ experienced another booking surge, which dropped the prices of United-operated flights by another $1500. Since then, the prices have stabilized, and business class isn't really booking as much as usual, probably because it's just outrageously expensive. I remember when $10k used to be the cost around Christmas if you waited within 50 days. Crazy, well, remember that before this holiday time, tickets were closer to $12K each. I also want to point out that not every major holiday will do this. I also tried this with Bastille Day and the Fourth of July with Air France, but I didn’t see it there. That’s not surprising as this flight only operates in the summer and the booking horizon for the next high season is too far off. If there are any programming geeks out there who love databases, call me. I have something I’d like to try.
Anyhow.
You may have seen those articles online claiming to have simple tricks for getting cheap tickets, like booking on Tuesdays or using specific websites. But let me tell you, deciding when to book a plane ticket is like gambling at a casino with a sports team. You might have all the facts and make better decisions than most, but in the end, you're up against the house.
For airline tickets, the "house" is the airlines themselves. They use extremely advanced and complex methods to make sure you spend as much money as possible. After all, airlines are businesses, not charities, and they operate in a highly unpredictable and challenging industry.
When I try to guess when a person should buy a ticket, I consider these questions:
"How full are the flights in question already?"
"What are the advance ticket rules for the airlines in this market for these city pairs?"
"Is it weekend travel?"
"Is this a high period of travel?"
"How many seats on aircraft are competing on this route?"
"When is the next major holiday in the USA?"
And now, "When is the next major holiday in the country in question?"
By considering these factors, I can make a more informed recommendation for booking flights. It's all about understanding the nuances of the airline industry and finding the best deals for our clients. Even then, it’s always a gamble. Unlike Vegas, in the airline industry, the house does not always win. While there is a lot you can do to make a guess in each case, there is no one single answer or simple way to always get the best price at the best time for the best plane ticket.
