Air New Zealand… the jig is up
This is excerpted from a client that planned a trip to New Zealand and the Cook Islands (Raratonga) just a few weeks prior to the “Pandy” hitting. He rebooked and has Air NZ credit he wants to Use, but the Realities of New Zealand travel along with the pricing and available routes of Air New Zealand have made that very hard indeed. I dug into this hard enough to want to share it with whomever may be interested.
Well, I'm afraid after digging in and finally getting somebody at Air NZ. I don't have good news. Air NZ has finally completely thrown in the towel on the Raratonga-LAX nonstop. What is worse is that, the flights from Raratonga to Auckland have also been cancelled. Worse still, is that Air NZ seems to be bent on revenue Recovery and offering very high prices for the holidays.
The below may be more than you want to know, but I said I'd dig into this thoroughly and I have.
The only possible ray of light that I may have to offer is that I think it's possible that Air NZ is overplaying their hand and demanding too high a price on a destination that people still feel unsure of. It's possible, that Air NZ will be forced to lower their prices as travel dates get closer, here is why.
While travel is finally now allowed in NZ, it's one of the few countries left that is still testing vaccinated travelers on arrival. A positive test means a 7 day quarantine and there are many, many places with far lighter restrictions. Below are seat maps of an LAX Auckland flight on the 18th of December which should be one of the busiest travel days of winter. Normally, that aircraft would be sold out, but we can see by the seat map it isn't. Beyond that, that aircraft is even more empty than it appears to be. Rows 37-48, never come up as available because those are Air NZ "Skycouch" seats that have some extra hoops (and cost) to book. LAX-Auckland-LAX is going for $3246.00 on the normally very busy days. That price seems, to me, artificially inflated, banking on the hopes of what was one of the most popular destinations in the world coming back to world prominence. There is a definite possibility we could see fares drop and drop dramatically as dates get closer. In October November, those LAX-AKL flights are in some cases about $1346, a good $2k less! than what they are in December. The top two screenshots are screenshots of December 18th ($3246 round trip) and November 7th ($1343 round trip) Note how different they are not.
With all of that said, Air NZ also has an ace card up it's sleeve to avoiding having to lower airfares to fill aircraft. These 777 are their largest seats with 342 passengers. They are currently operating on a reduced enough schedule that it's possible they could swap in their 787-900's, which max out at 275 passengers.
Air NZ flight 5, Saturday, December 18th, front and back halves of economy cabin. Remember that much of the forward section of economy seats are Air NZ “Sky Couch” seats that will not come available (though this GDS system) until a ticket is issued. So while some of them may be booked, they are just as likely not booked.
This seat map of an Air NZ 777-300 ER will show what I mean. It should be noted that it’s not uncommon for Sky couches to be booked with one Aisle seat in the center section. I can tell you that I’d book the Sky Couch for my wife and daughter and likely end up in the Aisle seat for the duration.
Economy tickets Round trip with 18 December as an outbound can go as high as $3246 (and aren’t getting too fare below $3k as far as I can tell)
Economy Tickets Round trip with 07 November as an outbound are going as low as $1335.00
Normally the Holiday season is EXTREMELY popular for New Zealand and Air NZ seems to be gambling that it will be again. I’m sure it will, but I’m not sure about this year.
November 7th.
